Spiritual Hypothermia

There continues to be a conversation within the UMC about the need for or the emphasis on different metrics. More often than not, the conversation about metrics and numbers is quickly tampered with the need for accompanying narratives. That is to say, that it is not just numbers but the stories in tandem that are important.

However noble the goal of marrying metrics and narrative, in practice the metrics win out. In part because they are easier to capture and they are easier to read and digest. It is why the USA Today has those little numbers on the bottom of each section highlighting something newsworthy. It is also why the internet is full of “top ten” lists and perhaps is the only reason that “10 weird things kids do at communion I wish more adults would do” is my most popular post - ever.

Numbers are easily digestible and give us a sense that we understand something about that which is measured. Stories are even more powerful than numbers, but that power is a slow build. It takes time to read the story and it takes imagination to understand the power within the story. Thus stories are often lost in the effort to marry metrics and narratives.

Recently I was in a conversation with a District Superintendent from New Mexico, Dr. Eduardo Rivera, who used the phrase “spiritual hypothermia” to describe the state of the UMC. Here is what he said:

Spiritual hypothermia: the gradual decline of vitality and of resources given to the extremities of the church that keep its witness and presence in the world (we often speak of the church being the hands and feet of Jesus - In spiritual hypothermia those are the first to go). What happens next is a church that enters a survivalist mode that only keeps its vital functions alive (sadly, only for a reduced time).

There is much to consider in what Dr. Rivera says for us as a denomination. How do we know if we are in a state of spiritual hypothermia? What one might call an extremity of the Church another might call that same thing vitally core? How do we know the difference?

Those suffering from hypothermia highly privilege knowing the number of heartbeats in a minute and know their core temperature. In a state of hypothermia there is a hyper focus on the vital signs of your body: heart beat, breaths per minute, temperature, etc. It is much less important in such a state to take a stock of the inner life of your soul or even how your actions affect the lives of others. The narratives take a back seat to the numbers when in suffering from hypothermia.

As the UMC considers her future structure and make up, pay attention to what information is privileged in the conversation. Is the conversation focused on the numbers of people in worship or the amount of money the denomination is loosing? Does the conversation focus on the numbers of churches or people that might leave? Or even who gets what amount of money?

Or will the narratives and stories be what we privilege as we consider the future of the UMC? Will we focus on the what God might be doing in and through us? Will we focus on the reality that the UMC is on the precipice of discovering a different way to live together that is different from other denominations that have only found the way to the courtroom? Can we privilege the knowing of how the UMC is being used by God to draw people closer into relationship and converting hearts?

When you visit a doctor, they look over your vital signs. However, when we are healthy, the doctor only looks at these signs once or twice a year. It is only when we are sick that we need a doctor to look at these signs every day or week. It is not that these metrics are unimportant it is only the degree of privilege given to them that is a symptom of possible spiritual hypothermia.

Goodhart's Law and the Church

On a recent episode of Planet Money entitled The Laws Of The Office, they bring to light Goodhart’s law. The hosts define Goodhart’s law in this way, “if a company decides to measure something, workers will find a way to respond with good numbers.”

https://towardsdatascience.com/unintended-consequences-and-goodharts-law-68d60a94705c

The Wikipedia entry quotes Marilyn Strathern who summarized the law as: "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure."

This got me thinking about the Church, specifically when the Church decides to measure things. Like other organizations, the Church measures a number of inputs in an attempt to get a full picture of the state of the Church. If Goodhart’s Law is true, once we choose a measure to measure our Churches, it is no longer a helpful measure because people will find ways to respond with good numbers.

In theology terms, this is called living under the Law. Living under the Law means that when we find ways to measure, humans, who are susceptible to Sin, will find ways to look good under the parameters of the Law. Knowing where we stand in relation to others is a key characteristic to Law living.

The Gospel smashes these hierarchies and comparisons. The Gospel proclaims that everyone is forgiven and make whole. This leveling of the playing field is met with great suspicion when we live under the Law (how can we know who is the best or at least who has “earned” the honor we give them?) Recall when Jesus’ parable of the workers who each received the same wage regardless of hours spent working? Or the idea that the first will be last and the last will be first? Jesus proclaimed a Gospel of freedom from the Law.

Even Goodhart’s Law.

Tyranny of Metrics

Jerry Muller's book, The Tyranny of Metrics, examines how fixating on creates a number of problems. The author states:, 

This book is not about the evils of measuring. It is about the unintended negative consequences of trying to substitute standardized measures of performance for personal judgment based on experience. The problem is not measurement, but excessive measurement and inappropriate measurement—not metrics, but metric fixation.

The book reads as a cautionary tale for the Church. The more the Church reads reports that "our numbers are in decline" the tighter we cling to metrics. As the Church faces a legitimacy and relevancy crisis in the culture, there is a temptation to fixate on metrics as a way to show legitimacy and relevancy. 

As the author says, metrics are not evil. It is difficult to diagnose a problem if there are not some measurements we can look at over time to make adjustments. It was once said to me that the numbers we look at in the church are similar to the numbers a doctor looks at when you go in for a check up. These "check up" numbers do not tell you everything about your health, but they are a starting point. If your breathing is consistently slow it could mean you are a super healthy marathoner but it could also mean you are close to death.

It is the fixation on metrics that is creeping into the Church that is a cause for concern. 

So what does metric fixation look like? Muller describes it in this way:

• The belief that it is possible and desirable to replace judgment, acquired by personal experience and talent, with numerical indicators of comparative performance based upon standardized data (metrics)
• The belief that making such metrics public (transparent) assures that institutions are actually carrying out their purposes (accountability)
• The belief that the best way to motivate people within these organizations is by attaching rewards and penalties to their measured performance, rewards that are either monetary (pay-for-performance) or reputational (rankings)

Paradoxically using metrics as the means to gain a sense of clarity of a situation and using metrics as the primary measure of success creates misaligned incentives. For instance, the surgeon who wants to have more patients may talk about how many successful surgeries they have preformed. However, what she/he fails to communicate is that the they only take cases that have a high probably of success to begin with. Thus the "successful' surgeon may not who you want for your complicated surgery. This example might be called, "creaming" the numbers. That is the surgeon counts only the "cream of the crop." The patient and the surgeon have misaligned incentives. 

Muller points out a series of reoccurring flaws in using metrics:

1. Measuring the things that are easy to measure (such as people in worship) 
2. Measuring inputs (such as money) over outcomes (such as a transformed life)
3. Creaming (counting only the best)
4. Lowering standards (calling a gathering a worship, then add those numbers to weekly worship total)
5. Omitting or distorting data (such as double counting a person who attends more than worship hour on Sunday)
6. Cheating (such as when the preacher adds to the numbers because "it felt like there were more people there...")

The reality is metric fixation is killing clergy and creating cultures where churches are dominantly assessed through what is easily counted rather than through the Spirit. How we overcome metric fixation is a difficult but not impossible process. Metrics are only a small picture of reality, but because it is a number it weighted heavier. Metrics give the impression of concreteness and accessibility to situations that are ambiguous and complex. There is a desire to simplify the complexities of the world giving us a false sense of control and understanding. 

Fixating on metrics means that when a church provides their "check up" numbers, we forget that sometimes the heartbeat of the church looks good because there is a pacemaker modifying the heartbeat. Just because a church looks strong in the metrics might mean they are "juicing" in subtle (and even purely motivated) ways. Just because a church looks weak in the metrics does not mean that the church is dying or failing. 

And even if it is dying, the Church of Jesus Christ is not dead for too long because Sunday is coming.